If there’s one thing for certain right now, it’s that we’re living in a time of great uncertainty. Everything from worldwide geopolitical alliances to public health threats is in flux, including the economic security of our country and our citizens. And among the uncertainties is what’s going on with the Social Security Administration. For the immediate short term, things should be okay (if there’s a government shutdown at the end of this week, you should still receive your Social Security payment) but the future of the program may be in jeopardy, from threats such as significant staff cuts, the closing of regional offices, the interventions from the “DOGE” initiative and the fundamental structuring of the program, which is taking in less money at this point than it is handing out.

Let’s quickly review the origins and the impact of Social Security up until this point. Social Security was enacted about 90 years ago, during the administration of FDR, to lift senior citizens out of poverty and form the foundation of a more secure retirement for US adults. And because of Social Security, the poverty rate of older adults has plummeted. In fact, Social Security lifts more people out of poverty than any other program in the United States. Without Social Security, 22 million more adults and children (yes, many children also benefit from Social Security payments) would live below the poverty line. In fact, most people aged 65 and older receive the majority of their income from Social Security. 

Social Security is funded by a tax on employers and employees (FICA taxes), and the interest on those tax collections funded a trust fund for the Social Security administration. Until 2021, more money was collected each year than was paid out, so a surplus was built up to support the growing number of Baby Boomer retirements. That surplus is now being spent down to help cover the costs of current Social Security payments, and it’s estimated that by 2035 there will be a shortfall and social security payment obligations will no longer be able to be fully met- meaning you will receive a smaller payment than what you were originally expected to receive. A range of recommendations to fix this shortfall have been proposed- everything from raising the full retirement age to 70 to raising taxes (or eliminating the wage cap so that more of the income from higher income earners is taxed for Social Security) or finding some other funding source. Benefits could also be reduced for those with higher incomes who may not depend upon Social Security to cushion their retirement savings. None of these would completely solve the problem, and all have their opponents in the political arena. However, there is one thing that most US adults seem to agree on: the majority of voters (both Republicans and Democrats) oppose the cutting of Social Security benefits.

Reports about fraud, abuse, and waste in the Social Security system are false and belied by data from the system itself. First, there are not thousands or millions of “dead people”  or 200-year-old people receiving payments. The computer system of the Social Security Administration does not always have date-of-death data for many people (especially from earlier eras), so technically, they are not reflected as deceased in the system. But as of 2015, payments are automatically stopped for anyone over the age of 115. The most recent data shows that about 90,000 beneficiaries aged 99 and older are receiving benefits, which is actually less than the estimated number of centenarians living in this country. In fact, a 2024 Inspector General’s report examining the Social Security Administration found that improper payments accounted for less than 1% of total payments, lower than that found for private insurance companies. The system is actually quite good at keeping track of payments and would benefit from resources to upgrade its computer systems to update records with death data.

Nonetheless, inaccuracies and outright lies about Social Security have become pervasive and have made it the target of extreme cost-cutting measures, which are likely to threaten the integrity of the system and cause major disruption for retirees. In addition to the underlying funding problems referenced above, many additional threats to Social Security are now looming, including checks not being sent out on time, drastic cuts to the services available from a Social Security office, and less transparency and accountability from the system. In fact, the former head of the Social Security Administration has predicted the collapse of the system and the interruption of benefits within the next 30-90 days. Contracts that fund independent research into the system have been eliminated (making scrutiny of what’s happening more difficult). While proposals to stop taxing Social Security payments and tips may sound enticing to many retirees, the reality is that this loss of tax income will further drain an already overburdened system, perhaps causing insolvency much sooner than 2035. Current workers at the Social Security Administration have spoken out about worsening services and have publicly admitted that even now, before drastic cuts happen, they are well behind in processing and attending to claims and problems. For an excellent profile of one dedicated but overwhelmed Social Security worker, take a look here.

Experts recommend that current retirees and younger workers prepare for the day when benefits may be cut. It is also quite possible that given the insecurity of the system, politicians may push for its privatization, which has its pros and cons but would put the system at the same risk that private investors face and is not especially popular among voters. So, what is the bottom line regarding Social Security? It’s clear it’s in the crosshairs of those who want to drastically cut costs indiscriminately in the Federal government. Beyond that, not much is clear except that we are in for rocky times ahead.