The data has been concerning even before the release of the most recent report. With more than 6 million Americans currently diagnosed with dementia (that’s nearly 10% of people 65 and older), more than 100,000 deaths a year attributable to dementia, and more than $600 billion in annual dementia caregiving and related costs, so many Americans are already at the breaking point when it comes to dealing with dementia. Now comes word, in a new study published in Nature Medicine, that those demographic numbers may explode in the coming years. According to this new research, the potential risk of dementia diagnosis for someone aged 55 and older can be as high as 42% and even higher if you are a woman, a Black American or you carry a gene predisposing you to an Alzheimer’s diagnosis. In fact, the number of US adults who will develop dementia each year is expected to dramatically increase- from 514,000 in 2020 to approximately one million in 2060. With the population aging and the reality that all Baby Boomers will be at least 75 by 2040, this increase in dementia cases -while distressing- is not surprising. The average age of a dementia diagnosis is 81, though there are substantial differences among African Americans, who are both diagnosed with dementia at higher rates and at earlier ages than white adults. What’s all the more striking is that this study took extra precautions to include a more gender and racially diverse population than is often the case, and even these numbers may underestimate the problem of dementia diagnoses in the coming decades. As a reminder, the term “dementia” includes both Alzheimer’s along with dementia brought on by other causes, such as vascular dementia or Lewy Body dementia. To understand the terminology, take a look here.

We’ve previously addressed the various ways at this point that dementia can be diagnosed, including cognitive and memory testing, MRI or PET scans of the brain, and now, blood tests. Recently, the Alzheimer’s Association updated their diagnostic guidelines (the first update in 20 years) to better reflect the array of information that goes into a dementia diagnosis and to allow for new tools and biomarkers to help diagnose dementia as early as possible, with the hope of positively intervening to slow down or halt the process of cognitive decline. 

As to what you can do to lower your own risk of being diagnosed with dementia? We’ve posted on many occasions lifestyle and health strategies to lower your risk, many of which are already common sense measures to support healthy aging more generally. The Washington Post recently posted its own list of 15 science-based ways to reduce your dementia risk, many of which are related to diet, health, and exercise, but some are more specific, including protecting against traumatic brain injury (a new study in JAMA highlights the connection between an injurious fall and the risk of a dementia diagnosis) and avoiding exposure to wildfire smoke (which is also addressed in another recent study in JAMA). 

And if you are diagnosed with dementia? New evidence underscores the outcome is not always encouraging. A study in the journal BMJ reports that life expectancy once a diagnosis is confirmed can vary anywhere between 1 ½ to 10 years. Women diagnosed at age 60 have a median survival time of 8.9 years. The older you are at the time of diagnosis, the less your life expectancy is projected to be. For example, those diagnosed at age 85 are expected to live only an additional 4 ½ years. This BMJ study also predicts that once a diagnosis is made, the potential for being admitted to a nursing home can range from ⅓ of patients within 3 years of a diagnosis, and by the 5th year following a dementia diagnosis, more than half of patients require nursing home care.  So the news is not encouraging for individuals, their families, and society at large. If nothing else, let these data points motivate you and those you love to do all you can to lower your risk of dementia as best as you can. It’s never too late to alter your lifestyle and lower your risk.